Housing Supply Squeeze: DHSUD Approvals at a Decade Low

The number that matters most for anyone buying a pre selling home in this housing supply squeeze is not a price. It is 91: the licenses to sell that the housing regulator issued in the first half of 2026, covering 23,440 units, according to an audit of the DHSUD registry by the Organization of Socialized and Economic Housing Developers reported by Bilyonaryo on August 21. At that pace 2026 ends with about 188 projects and 48,337 units approved, against a decade average of 816 licenses and 234,074 units a year and a previous low of 631 licenses in 2018. That is a housing supply squeeze of roughly 77 percent fewer projects and 79 percent fewer units than normal.

Four days later the housing secretary told reporters that the government's own program, about 1.13 million units or forms of housing assistance by the end of the administration, will not clear the 3.7 million unit backlog by 2028 without private production, as reported by BusinessWorld, and that the 2027 budget proposal gives the housing agencies ₱5.49 billion (about $87.8 million / €75.6 million) against the ₱60 billion (about $960 million / €826 million) they asked for. Fewer private approvals and less public money at the same time: here is what that does to prices, and to the value of a unit that already exists.

What a license to sell shortage actually means

A developer cannot sell a pre selling unit in the Philippines without a license to sell for that project, so the count of licenses is the count of new inventory allowed to reach buyers. When it falls from 800 to 900 a year to a pace of 93 by early August, as SunStar reported from Cebu, launches stop. Cebu Landmasters, the largest Visayas developer, said it had "really no new launches in the first half" and saw its reservation sales drop to ₱10.7 billion (about $171 million / €147 million) from ₱14.3 billion (about $229 million / €197 million) while its existing projects sold out to 95 percent. The stock did not stop selling; the pipeline behind it emptied.

The regulator disputes that it is slow, attributing rejections to incomplete documents, and the industry group admits the registry alone cannot show whether the cause is bottlenecks, poor submissions or fewer applications. For a buyer the cause matters less than the effect the group itself spelled out: fewer launches, lower construction activity and tighter supply over the next two to three years.

Where prices go from here

Tight new supply does two things at once. It supports asking prices on the projects that do have licenses, because developers with permits in hand face fewer competing launches; the big estate groups are already reloading only inside townships where approvals exist. And it raises the relative value of ready units and resale homes, because a family that needs to move in 2027 cannot wait for a project that has not been approved. Our average house price data shows a ₱7.5 million (about $120,000 / €103,000) median for a house and lot nationwide; expect the ready for occupancy end of that market to hold firmer than the pre selling end over the next year.

The exception is the mid market condominium segment in Metro Manila, which entered the squeeze with an overhang of unsold units. There the shortage of new licenses gives developers room to clear stock rather than to raise prices, and our 2026 outlook already flagged that condominiums and houses are moving on different cycles. Watch the discounts on completed towers before you sign for a tower that has not broken ground.

What the backlog numbers mean for the affordable end

The 3.7 million backlog is concentrated where the licenses matter most: socialized and economic housing, the segment the audit's authors represent. If the public program delivers 1.13 million units and forms of assistance by 2028 and the private pipeline is at a decade low, the gap widens, and the effect shows up as rising rents and waiting lists rather than headline prices. Buyers relying on Pag-IBIG's socialized tiers should look at what is already licensed and under construction; the affordable housing guide lists the programs and the provinces where ₱2 million to ₱4 million (about $32,000 to $64,000 / €27,500 to €55,100) still buys a real house, and the fund's higher ₱10 million loan ceiling helps only where there is something to buy.

How to buy well inside a squeeze

Ask for the license to sell number and check it on the regulator's registry before paying a reservation fee; in a year when most projects do not have one, a project that does is the product. Prefer developers with several completed projects and a permit in hand over a brochure and a date. Put the turnover date, the refund schedule and the remedy for delay in the contract, because a slow pipeline also means slower deliveries; how to file a complaint against a developer explains the regulator's new 30 day rule if things go wrong, and the pre selling first visit guide lists the promises worth writing down. If you are a seller of a ready house, this is a market that rewards you: price against current listings, not against what pre selling brochures ask, and expect buyers who cannot wait.

Figures are from the sources cited as of their publication dates; approval counts and budgets change. This is general market information, not investment advice.

Dollar and euro figures are approximate conversions at ₱62.5 per US dollar and ₱72.6 per euro (ECB reference rates, 2026-09-08).